Meteorological Factors Caused Unexpected Drop in India’s Wind Production: Analysis

Wind power production in India in Q2 and Q3 saw an unexpected drop due to low wind speeds caused by regional and global meteorological factors.

A new analysis by US-based consultancy firm, ArcVera Renewables has found that wind power production in India in the second (Q2) and third quarter (Q3) of the current financial year saw an unexpected drop due to low wind speeds caused by regional and global meteorological factors.

ArcVera Renewables was enlisted by an Indian Independent Power Producer (IPP) to analyse wind resource variation cause and effect after an unexpected drop in wind farm energy production in the country.

The analysis stated that though variable year-to-year, wind power production in India in the second and third quarter this year was significantly lower than the long-term average production expectations which, based on an analysis of climate records and surface wind observation sites, was a rare event.

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The firm deployed its methodology using wind farms’ past energy production and other data to assess wind farm performance. Its technical experts gathered relevant recent and climatological historical (30-60 year monthly) data for the region or regions of interest, including El Niño/ La Niña and other climate indices. They then compared frequency-of-return statistics for recent periods of low winds and prepared a report describing the results and including discussion of the recent event and return-time based on 30 to 60-year analysis. ArcVera also conducted an operational backcast energy assessment of the wind farms using monthly production data.

An operational backcast energy assessment estimates the long-term net energy production of an existing wind farm by examining its monthly energy production against several independent long-term wind speed datasets which are representative of the flow conditions at or near the project site. These datasets can be used to discern whether wind speeds have been above or below average during the operational period of record. The results of the operational backcast energy assessments can be used to determine expected monthly energy production for future years.

“Based on a review of meteorological weather records, the low wind speeds were caused by a combination of regional and global meteorological factors that seldom occur simultaneously,” explained C R Anbalagan, country manager and director-business development at the firm.