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Saatvik Green's Prashant Mathur Reckons 40 GW of ALMM Capacity To Be Obsolete In A Year

In its first analyst call after its listing and Q1 results, Saatvik Green Energy's CEO Prashant Mathur predicted that 40 GW of ALMM capacity would be obsolete in a year, reducing the chances of overcapacity

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Ambala based Saatvik Green Energy Limited's  maiden earnings call after a listing on the stock exchanges was an interesting one, with the management available in full strength to take analyst questions. Starting with Neelesh Garg, Chairman and Managing Director, it also had Manik Garg, Managing Director,  Prashant  Mathur, Chief Executive Officer, and Abani Kant Jha, Chief Financial  Officer participating. The firm's INR 900 crores initial public  offering received an encouraging response from the market with overall subscription of 6.93  times. The shares issued at a price of Rs 465 were trading at Rs 521 at last closing, since the listing on September 26. 

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The firm, which started operations in 2016 with a  125 megawatt capacity,  has grown rapidly to reach about 3.8 gigawatt  of installed capacity as of June 2025. It has added one more gigawatt of capacity in quarter two  of FY26. Operating across the renewable  value chain, from module manufacturing, EPC, and O&M services,  the firm has a good perspective of the market today.

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Going ahead, the firm is using the IPO proceeds to expand manufacturing in Odisha, where it plans a fully integrated cell and module  manufacturing facility of gigawatt for cells and 4 gigawatt for modules, expected  to be commissioned by quarter 3 FY27 and FY26, respectively. 

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On the Overcapacity Question for Module Industry

Saatvik Solar Breaks Ground For 4 GW Module Plant

Prashant Mathur, CEO, tackled the question. Mathur listed down three factors that will help balance out any manufacturing overcapacity risks. Technological changes that will make many production lines currently in the ALMM list obsolete ( many old technologies like Multi, Mono, and Mono PERC) in the next one year, the emergence of new demand centres from Green Hydrogen and Ammonia, and the boost from energy storage for solar projects.   He stressed that with an existing order book of 4 GW, plus demaand from retail and distributors besides this, the firm had enough on its plates for the next 12 months. With the 4 GW module facility in Odisha expected to come online in April 2026, the firm remained well placed to expand revenues and protect margins going ahead as well. He stressed that as far as cell manufacturing goes, owing to the longer lead times and stabilisation required, for the entire FY 27, the firm expected to have about 1 GW of cell putput available to it. He put an estimate of as high as 40 GW in terms of ALMM listed capacity that might become  obsolete in a year. 

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Taking TOPCon as the benchmark now, Mathur based his estimate on the Mono PERC or the lower efficiency modules being arounf 35 gigawatt in the ALMM list. Add to that equipment's that have upgraded from Mono PERC to TOPCon with a 10-bus bar or a 
16-bus bar type of of stringer capacities, and you have a 40 GW figure for less efficient modules.

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Long Term Plans

On the firm's long term growth plans , Mathur highlighted plans for backward integration right upto wafers and ingots . the firm has also started an entry into solar pumps, installing about 100 pumps last year. This year it hopes to add 4,000 to 5,000 pumps. that will mean revenue from pumps itself would move from less than Rs 2 crores last year to about Rs 50 crores revenue this year. The firm has also announced plans to get into inverters with residential as well as small commercial industrial inverters and also ancillaries including encapsulant  manufacturing.  
BESS projects are also on the board with a target to get into battery storage products also.  

Manufacturing Plans 

CFO Abani Jha share that the Odisha expansion, a green field expansion, would involve about Rs 1,850 crores which includes 4 gigawatt of module and 2.4  gigawatt of cell in phase one of the project. A further 2.4 GW would be added in Phase 2 later.  the firm is hopeful that adding its own cell line next year will help add an additional 4-5% EBITDA benefit.  

On its Ingot and wafer plans, the firm says  it has taken land in Madhya Pradesh at the  solar manufacturing park being built in Narmadapuram near Bhopal.  While it has got 51 acre land, it is trying to increase it to at least 200 acres to build  8 gigawatt of integrated ingot wafer cell module kind of a facility there. He stressed that with planned investments spaced out over the next two financial years, the firm will look to keep its debt/equity ratio at 1.2 to 1.3. 

Customer Profile 

Utility scale demand continues to account for the lion's share of sales at 80% in the Q2 quarter for the firm, with retail at about 10%, C&I is about 8%, and the remaining  one from EPC and export. Even while the firm expects its solar pump business to expand significntly with a ram up to possibly 15,000 pumps by next year, it also has high hopes from the PM Suryaghar scheme, where it believes the potential is much higher than the target of 10 million homes. 

Abani Jha solar manufacturing IPO Analyst call Neelesh Garg manufacturing overcapacity Prashant Mathur Saatvik Green Energy
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