US Could Usher Over 90 GW Wind Installations By 2028: US Wind Watch

A latest study release entitled, the ‘US Wind Watch’, has been released by Wood Mackenzie and  the American Clean Power Association. The report reflects on the surge in offshore wind projects, the revival of onshore markets, and the booming repowering sector.

Estimates on Wind Installations 

The study estimates more than 90 GW of wind energy to be installed within the US by the end of 2028. This will entail offshore wind projects, onshore wind development and repowering of aging wind farms.   

Potential in Offshore Wind

The US offshore market is ready to take off with the first commercial scale offshore wind projects currently under construction. By the end of 2028, the report forecasts that nearly 12 GW of offshore wind projects will be operational, across seven different states on the Atlantic coast.

The offshore wind market faces several significant challenges, including project economics, regulatory hurdles, permitting timelines and supply chain constraints. Despite these challenges, nearly 30 GW of offshore wind capacity has commercial potential by the end of the decade. Reaching this potential requires positive movement by policy makers at the state and federal level and significant investment from within the offshore wind supply chain. 

Rebound for Onshore Market

The US onshore market will also rebound, following a low-point of 6.5 GW in 2023, to exceed 13 GW annually by the end of 2028. This increase in market activity is reinforced by the long-term extension of the Production Tax Credit (PTC), that was passed within the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022.    

While Texas has been the wind leader with over 28% of the existing US installed base, the state will contribute just 15% of the five-year forecast, due to congestion and transmission constraints. 

Repowering

Repowering of aging wind assets is also expected to see tremendous growth in the US. Many assets over ten-years old can qualify for an additional ten years of the PTC by making major upgrades to existing equipment, including new blades, drivetrains or nacelles. These upgrades promise better performance and improved reliability on the aging fleet.   

Repowering has experienced significant success under the previous PTC regime, but a new wave of wind projects are now eligible for repowering and are expected to take advantage of this incentive. Repowering is expected to be performed on over 30 GW, or 20%, of the existing US onshore wind energy fleet by the end of 2028.  

In August, the US Department of Energy indicated in its newly released reports that wind power accounted for 22% of new electricity capacity installed in the United States in 2022, second only to solar, representing $12 billion in capital investment, and employing more than 125,000 Americans.