Solar Module Prices Continue To Search For Bottom As Cell Prices Decline Further

PV Infolink, the Chinese solar research consultancy whose weekly spot prices bulletin serves as a key indicator for many, has, in its latest report, continued to bring bad news for manufacturers. Bad, because even as one would assume price drops are good for developers and eventually consumers, the persistent weakness risks putting growth at risk as customers try and wait for further drops.

Advertisment

Worse, there have been indications apparently from some developers in China about retendering of projects, to get the benefit of lower prices.

No shocker here, but solar module prices (orange line) have moved lower alongside polysilicon prices (white line).

Polysilicon: -75% over last 12-months
Modules: -40%

What do you think; have we hit a near-term floor for now?
Learn more about this topic or the solar industry by… pic.twitter.com/nZCYE3R66F

— Rob Barnett (@barnettenergy) September 19, 2023

Advertisment

Prices, which have dropped to as low as 12 cents /wp in some cases, can be put in perspective when we consider that a few months back, most developers we spoke to in India indicated they would be very happy with prices at 18-19 cents/wp. Thus, even the 40% BCD should not deter the same developers from proceeding swiftly with their much delayed projects in many cases.

While the Indian market, which is dominated by module manufacturers will still not mind the drop in cell prices as much as many Chinese firms, the fact remains that their bigger worry is the drop in demand from clients looking to wait for further drops. SaurEnergy has regularly fielded requests to assert that prices won't drop any further, and we believe it too, as margins for even China based integrated solar module makers are well into the single digits at these levels.

These falling prices have shadowed the steep drop in polysilicon prices, which had triggered the steep volatility and hikes through 2022.  The most 'expensive' markets for manufacturing solar are already hurting, as we saw with European manufacturers last week, with many complaining that these low prices were unviable for them to compete with.