Netherlands Scales Back 2040 Offshore Wind Ambitions by 10 to 20 GW

The Netherlands will revise its offshore wind ambitions, abandoning its previous target of installing 50 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2040, according to a statement by Sophie Hermans, the Minister for Climate and Green Growth. The decision follows updated projections of electricity demand, rising project costs, and lagging development in key complementary sectors such as hydrogen.

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In a letter to the Dutch Parliament, Hermans said the country needs to apply ‘realism’ in planning the roll-out of offshore wind energy. “It does not seem feasible and necessary at the moment to have 50 GW of offshore wind … capacity by 2040,” she stated.

Revised Target Under WIN Plan

The rollback is outlined under the newly released North Sea Wind Energy Infrastructure Plan (WIN), which provides an updated framework for offshore wind planning in the Dutch North Sea. Based on recent market assessments, the WIN report concludes that a capacity range of 30 GW to 40 GW is more attainable by 2040.

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Hermans said that the government will recalibrate its offshore wind and hydrogen goals in an upcoming Climate and Energy Memorandum, expected in September 2025. This memorandum will incorporate revised forecasts for electricity and hydrogen demand, and provide broader insights into the country’s evolving energy transition.

“This creates a more realistic roll-out path that fits the way in which the energy transition is developing,” Hermans added.

Sectoral Impacts and Concerns

The Dutch wind energy association NedZero has criticised the government’s decision, warning that it jeopardises not only the 2040 target but also the 70 GW offshore wind ambition for 2050. “This represents a significant step backward in ambition with far-reaching consequences for investment security, energy independence, and achieving national and European climate goals,” the group said in a statement.

Rising capital expenditure (CapEx) for offshore wind projects, supply chain bottlenecks, and delayed scaling of green hydrogen production have all added complexity to the offshore rollout. Additionally, lower-than-expected electrification rates in industries and households have dampened demand forecasts.

Near-Term Developments

Despite scaling back the long-term target, the Dutch government remains committed to offshore wind in the near term. Hermans noted that an offshore wind action plan will be published later this year to guide development through 2033.

The WIN plan’s recalibration of offshore wind ambitions signals a shift in the Netherlands’ approach — from aggressive target-setting to pragmatic infrastructure planning. However, stakeholders have warned that reduced targets could weaken investor confidence and slow the pace of decarbonisation in Europe’s broader energy ecosystem.