Solar Power Europe Signals End of EU Solar Boom

Solar Power Europe, the premier solar body in Europe, asserts that the EU solar boom is over. Not only that, the organisation claims that EU’s 2030 renewable targets are at risk now, a situation considered unthinkable as recently as 2023. With a 0.7% contraction from 65.6 GW installed in 2024, to 65.1 GW installed in 2025, this year marks the first year since 2016 where the EU has installed less solar than the year before. The bidy bhad earlier issued a warning based on 2024 numbers as well, something that has come true now. The drop comes even as Solar became the largest electricity source in June for the first time ever, and its annual share in EU power supply rose to over 13%, roughly doubling within just a few years. 
The body now projects two further years of market decline. For 2030, the Medium Scenario has been revised down by 12% in just twelve months, removing nearly 100 GW from Europe’s expected solar fleet – more than 1.5 times the total annual installations of 2024. Under current trends, the EU is now projected to reach only 718 GW of installed solar by 2030, falling short of the 750 GW target. 

The news of the decline is softened by the mid-decade milestone achieved. In the 2022 EU Solar Strategy, the EU set a goal of 400 GW installed in the bloc by 2025. Europe made it across this finish line, with an estimated 406 GW total solar installed across the EU by the end of the year. 

However, the slowdown is set to continue in 2026 and 2027, with growth returning in 2028 and 2029, and the EU finally returning to 2025 solar installation levels in 2030, with around 67 GW annual installations. Thus Solar Power Europe projects accordingly that EU will fall short of its 750 GW solar target for 2030. Solar Power Europe usually refers to such numbers in DC terms, usually a 1.25X multiple of AC capacity, a number used by the EU.

Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO of SolarPower Europe (she/her) said, “The number may seem small, but the symbolism is big. We hit our 2025 solar target, but now for the first time, our 2030 target is falling out of reach. This interruption in solar market growth comes at a pivotal moment when acceleration is essential. Solar is now delivering for Europe; 13% of Europe’s electricity was solar powered in 2025. In June we provided the most power out of all other sources in the EU. It's critical that policymakers now implement robust frameworks for electrification, system flexibility, and energy storage to ensure solar leads Europe’s energy transition for the rest of this decade." 

The faltering market is attributed to a number of factors. An uncertain post-energy crisis environment has seen rooftop support schemes cut and a perceived softening of energy price pressure on households, drastically slowing the home solar market. Home rooftop solar has slowed significantly, having been responsible for 28% of EU installed capacity in 2023, but only 14% in 2025. 

Rooftop solar has hitherto  dominated capacity additions, and a slowdown there is an unmitigated disaster for the solar ecosystem that has developed in the EU around that market.

For the first time, solar farms have made up over 50% of installed solar capacity, however, standalone solar faces increasing challenges on profitability, with increasing numbers of negative pricing hours eating away at revenues from solar electricity. 

While the picture across segments is changing, the ranking across EU countries stays relatively stable. Germany and Spain maintained their leads as the EU’s largest solar markets, driven by utility-scale projects as rooftop incentives slowed. In a slight-shake up, France overtook Italy to install the third-largest solar capacity in 2025, propelled by strong commercial and utility-scale expansion, while Italy’s rooftop sector contracted sharply following the phase-out of support schemes. 

Notably, Romania and Bulgaria entered the top 10 solar markets for the first time, with Romania boasting the fastest growth rate among its peers and Bulgaria’s surge tied to national recovery funding deadlines. On the other hand, the Netherlands’ ranking plunged to eighth place, mirroring its rooftop installations development. Looking across the top ten markets, half of them installed less solar in 2025 when compared to 2024; Italy, Poland, Greece, the Netherlands, and Portugal. 

Market conditions vary across the EU, but there are common barriers to overcome at EU-level. The report’s policy recommendations focus on redefining energy security around renewable sources, adopting a comprehensive strategy for flexibility, improving permitting procedures, boosting the rooftop solar market, and making solar supply chains more sustainable and resilient. 
Read the full report here.