India Hits RE Capacity Targets 5 Years Earlier, Will Coal Be Tamed Finally?

As the news of renewable energy crossing the 50% mark in India's grid capacity is celebrated, it is also pertinent to consider how this has been achieved. And more importantly, the way ahead. For now, the news is that out of 484.8 GW of total installed capacity, 242.8 GW is now based on renewable or low-carbon sources, according to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy.

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It is also accepted that with the country’s per capita emissions at one-third of the global average, India is one of the few G20 countries that are on track to meet their commitments made under the Nationally Determined Contributions. (NDCs)

The country’s installed capacity includes 49.92% of thermal capacity, 1.81% of nuclear, and 48.27% of renewable energy, including large hydropower, as of June 30, 2025, the MNRE statement said.

A few things have happened since these targets were set. Importantly, the share of RE in generation, something that has always been a bugbear for many, is also closer to 40% after taking into account all hydro and bio energy and nuclear, though nuclear was not considered when a 175 GW target for renewables was set for 2022. One shouldn't quibble on this issue in the larger interest, considering the settled role for these energy sources in the coming decades and their recognition globally as carbon-free sources now, especially nuclear. That explains why the 500 GW target for 2030 has no such exceptions anymore.

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Key Milestones

The obvious one is that the share of solar and wind generation has moved up from next to nothing in 2010 to about 15% now, besides a capacity share of 38% (168/443 GW approx.) of total capacity. 

The not-so-obvious one is the drop in share for hydro, thanks to a slowdown in new commissionings of hydro capacity, even as solar and wind added massive capacity. From almost 15% generation share, the share of hydro today has come down to under 10%. This has also been affected by erratic rainfall patterns. 

Nuclear Share to Remain Stagnant/Fall

For nuclear, even as capacity additions are happening, they have barely kept up with the overall demand growth, ensuring no increase in the share of nuclear power in the mix. The big advantage, of course, is that nuclear can also operate at 70% plus PLF, where further improvements could push up the share fractionally. 

Coal Remains the King

Coal or thermal power, always the mainstay of India's power grid, has strengthened its grip, one could argue, with overall coal-based capacity rising to 230 GW, a rise of 30% from 2015, even as gas and lignite-based capacities saw no increases. CEA projections take coal-based capacity to 280 plus GW by 2030-32. The last two years have seen coal plants operate at some of the highest PLFs in the past few years. The recent capitulation on the issue of Flue-gas desulfurization for thermal plants (all but those within 10 km of cities with populations over 1 million) only shows how strong the power of the coal advocacy group remains. Coal consumption, meanwhile, is on track to cross a billion tonnes, a landmark milestone that will be celebrated but should make us think harder about the future we are hurtling towards. 

Needed: A Re-look at Targets and Pathways 

For those surprised at the rare instance of India reaching its targets earlier than planned, look no further than China, which reached its own 2030 targets in 2024, or the many countries in Europe, the US, Australia, and even the Middle East, where solar-powered renewable targets have been reached or breached, with many upgrading targets for 2030. India needs to do the same, while acknowledging the role played by the 90% drop in solar panel costs post-2014.

 A second opportunity to aim higher has opened up with the dropping BESS costs, though this one, too, owes its origins and dominance to China, whose record is likely to lead to much less enthusiasm for the low-priced opportunity than was seen for solar.

For India, that means, besides BESS, a sharper focus on pumped hydro storage, an urgent strengthening of the transmission grid to handle more renewables, and taking a leaf out of China's latest playbook, a faster plan to transition energy-intensive industrial sectors to green energy.