As China's Troubled Wind Energy Sector Recovers, A Similar Prescription For Solar Players Takes Shape

China's top 5 solar manufacturers have together bled over RMB 17.3 billion (&2.4 billion) in losses in H1 of 2025. The losses, caused by severe oversupply are widely seen as having peaked, with possible government mediated efforts on to stem the bleeding.  

Flying In The Wind-Key Lessons For Solar 

The efforts for solar come less than a year after an industry agreement on pushing back from hyper competitive behaviour in the wind sector seems to be showing clear results. The largest player, Goldwind, saw its Wind Turbine Generator (WTG) business generate RMB 21,852 million of revenue in 1H25, representing 76.69% of total revenue and a string growth of 71.15%  year-on-year. The improving margins and a roaring domestic market will allow Goldwind, and other Chinese firms that together make up close to 70% of the global wind market now, better leeway to continue investing abroad.  The ascendance of the Chinese firms has been a major reason behind the dropping costs of wind energy, that have made it the cheapest energy source in many markets globally, especially onshore wind. Interestingly, Goldwind’s product strategy has increasingly focused on larger capacity wind turbines. In 1H25, turbines of 6MW and above accounted for 81.5% of total sale capacity (8,672MW), while 4MW to 6MW units represented 18.3% (1,947MW). Units below 4MW have become nearly obsolete, accounting for just 0.2% (23MW) of sales. By contrast, the Indian onshore market is dominated by 3 MW turbines currently.

The big question however is, will the same approach work for the Chinese solar sector, that is even more dominant, yet plagued by even more competition and overcapacity? As we write this, efforts are underway in China to get the top Industry players to arrive at a similar consensus on price competition.   

The Solar Losses

While Longi was the only one of the five solar firms to narrow its loss in the six months ended June 30 with a shrinkage of 51 percent to USD360 million, other solar firms haven't had much good to report.

Tongwei's six-month loss expanded 59 percent to CNY5 billion, while Trina Solar saw losses grow 5 times over the ame period when it was actually profitable. This 2025 H1 is also the first time it has reported losses since going public in 2020.

An industry shakeout is ongoing in China, with almost 50 smaller firms having exited or on their way out by the year end. A few lucky ones might be acquired, but a proper cull is definitely on. The raising of tariff walls in more and more markets has not helped, as firms have had to relook their playbook and consider more manufacturing outside China to protect market share.  

The solar firms will need all the help they can get to move back into profits, as the government is unlikely to step in with direct support. The focus would be on mutually agreed price floors, stricter monitoring of sales, and a push to phase out any outdated capacity across the industry. Industry experts we had spoken to in China said that even TOPCon(Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact)), the dominant module type until recently will also be phased out gradually from 2027 onwards, as BC + HJT and other technology innovations spread further.   Longi and Jinko for instance have been aggressive backers of BC type modules, which can make a huge difference to the Chinese, and global markets.  

Price Stability Or Price Hikes?

For now, the consensus remains on price stability in the solar space at least until year end, while 2026 might see the first efforts at price hikes, especially for higher efficiency, newer BC /HJT modules.   Developers in Inda will do well to keep an eye on developments, as prices in India will be impacted when that happens. Price transmission to India is likely to be a little delayed however, as the country will have a sizeable cell making capacity by year end. But with wafers almost completely imported, transmission will happen, within 2 months of any significant price changes in China.