USD 790 Million Indian Solar Imports Face US Trade Scrutiny

The US Commerce Department has initiated anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations into solar cell imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos, a move that could significantly disrupt the USD 1.5 billion supply chain supporting America’s clean energy goals.

The probes focus on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells (CSPV cells)- whether or not assembled into modules - under specific US tariff codes. The action stems from a petition filed by the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade, representing domestic solar manufacturers.

ITC Review and Timeline

The US International Trade Commission (ITC) will examine whether imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos have caused, or threaten to cause, material injury to American producers. 

A preliminary injury ruling is expected by September 2, 2025. If the ITC confirms injury, the US Commerce Department will move forward with its investigations, with preliminary countervailing duty findings due on 13 October 2025 and preliminary anti-dumping findings scheduled for 26 December 2025.

In 2024, India exported USD 790 million worth of CSPV products to the US, Indonesia USD 420 million, and Laos USD 340 million. Any new tariffs could sharply impact these trade flows, raising costs for US developers or reducing imports from these countries.

Tariffs on India Intensify Trade Tensions

Just days before a planned Alaska meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump imposed unprecedented tariffs on India - a key buyer of Russian oil - labelling the move a “huge blow” to Moscow. The new measure combines a 25 percent base tariff with an additional 25 percent penalty linked to India’s Russia ties, bringing the total to 50 percent.

Economic and Market Impact

Credit rating agency Moody’s warned that such steep tariffs could undermine India’s manufacturing ambitions and slow economic growth. Investor sentiment has already weakened - foreign investors withdrew USD 900 million from Indian equities in August after a USD 2 billion outflow in July.

The Nifty 50 fell 2.9 percent and the Sensex slipped 0.7 percent during the same period.

Effect on Renewable Trade

The 25-50 percent tariff range is expected to erode India’s cost advantage in solar module exports to the US Indian companies such as Vikram Solar and Tata Power had planned US-based module factories, but the volatile trade climate could delay or deter these investments, especially if policy changes are likely within months.