Statkraft Shares its Low Emissions Scenario of a Cost Effective Transition

Statkraft has launched is Low Emissions Scenario which projects and details how energy usage, and the renewable energy industry, will change across Europe in the next thirty years.

One of Europe’s largest renewable energy producers, Statkraft, has launched is Low Emissions Scenario which projects and details how energy usage, and the renewable energy industry, will change across Europe in the next thirty years. It has also analysed the potential barriers Europe could face in the transition, and what their consequences would be.

The Low Emissions Scenario prediction has assumed that energy use in the EU will be decarbonised according to a 90 percent climate target in 2050 in line with the European Green Deal ambitions. The predictions have also taken into account expectations that COVID-19 will result in lower economic growth in Europe over the period, which in turn will reduce the need for energy and electricity to a greater extent than estimated before the pandemic.

According to it, a cost-effective transition to the Low Emissions Scenario in Europe will result in an almost fully decarbonised power sector in 2050, with 95 percent renewable power production, where more than 80 percent is from variable sources. Solar PV will account for half of the installed capacity in the power sector in 2050, with annual capacity growth of approximately 8 percent. Wind power will account for just over a third of the capacity and will see an annual growth of 6 percent. Meanwhile, the need for electricity will increase by around 60 percent from today. The transport and power sectors will account for the largest emission reductions between now and 2050.

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It further adds that in the power sector, two-thirds of the emission reductions will stem from renewable sources, approximately one-fifth will be a result of phasing out coal power and the remainder will be due to energy efficiency improvements. In the other sectors, electrification will be the most cost-efficient climate measure across time, geography and sectors. In our analyses, electrification accounts for more than two-thirds of the emission reductions in the transport, industry and buildings sectors.

David Flood, Managing Director of Statkraft UK, said “as we draw closer to COP26, it’s more important than ever to look to the future and, in particular, the pathway to net zero. Our Low Emissions Scenario outlines our projections for the decades ahead and shows how different events could impact a low emission future. We find that solar PV will become the largest source of power generation from 2035, and that capacity in the global power sector will increase three-fold between now and 2050 as a result of renewable energy. These findings complement our own mission to develop at least 8 GW of wind and solar power by 2025 – building a cleaner, greener future of energy generation.” 

Emission-free hydrogen accounts for a fifth of the emission reductions in the buildings and industry sectors and a quarter of the emission reductions in the transport sector over the period. Emission-free hydrogen as a climate solution will accelerate after 2030 and end with a 12 percent share of the total final energy in Europe in 2050. Energy efficiency improvements and bioenergy will account for the remainder of the emission reductions.

Although electricity demand will increase, the total final energy demand will fall by 46 percent, 43 percent and 32 percent for transport, buildings and industry respectively. This is due to energy efficiency, the replacement of fossil energy sources with electricity, and the fact that electricity in end-use is generally more efficient than fossil energy in most applications. Fossil fuel demand in the buildings, industry and transport sectors will fall by a total of 83 percent between now and 2050 in our analyses.