Solar and Storage Lead US Power Additions Despite Federal Policy Headwinds

The US added nearly 18 GW of new solar capacity in the first half of 2025, with solar and storage accounting for 82% of all new power entering the grid, according to the latest report from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie.

The Trump administration’s policies targeting clean energy, including provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (HR1), have significantly reduced solar deployment forecasts. The report’s low-case scenario warns that the U.S. could lose 44 GW of solar deployment by 2030, an 18% decline from previous estimates. Compared with pre-HR1 projections, the country risks a total shortfall of 55 GW, or 21%, by 2030.

“Solar and storage remain the backbone of America’s energy future, supplying the majority of new power at the lowest cost,” said SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper. “Federal policy changes are stifling investment, raising energy costs, and putting grid reliability at risk. Yet demand for reliable, affordable energy continues to drive industry growth.”

The report notes that 77% of 2025 solar capacity was installed in states won by President Trump, including Texas, Indiana, Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky, and Arkansas, which feature among the top 10 states for new solar projects.

In the first half of 2025, the U.S. also added 13 GW of solar module manufacturing capacity, with expansions in Texas, Indiana, and Minnesota, bringing total U.S. capacity to 55 GW. However, the report highlights a pause in upstream manufacturing investment in Q2, citing uncertainty over federal policies as a key risk to continued growth.

While near-term deployment remains supported by projects already underway, tax credit deadlines, and rising power demand, the low-case forecast projects a 4% reduction in solar deployment relative to pre-HR1 expectations by 2030.

Recent executive actions, including a Department of the Interior (DOI) order increasing permitting scrutiny for solar projects, could affect approximately 44 GW of planned capacity, particularly in Arizona, California, Utah, and Nevada.

“There is considerable downside risk if federal permitting creates additional constraints for solar projects,” said Michelle Davis, head of solar research at Wood Mackenzie. “The industry is navigating rapid policy changes, and uncertainty is increasing operational challenges.”

SEIA has urged DOI Secretary Doug Burgum to reconsider these measures, warning of potential job losses, higher electricity costs, and reduced U.S. competitiveness.

The report also underscores that constrained solar growth could impact the country’s broader technology and AI ambitions, while SEIA continues to advocate for grid reliability policies that integrate solar and storage solutions to meet rising demand.