Smart Tech Could Cut $1.3 Tr From Global Grid Expansion Costs, Says ETC Report

The Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) report found that global power systems dominated by wind and solar generation can deliver electricity at costs comparable to or lower than fossil fuel-based power systems in most parts of the world.

ETC shared these findings in its report, "Power Systems Transformation: Delivering Competitive, Resilient Electricity in High-Renewable Systems."

The report indicated that electricity is projected to supply up to 70 percent of global final energy consumption in a decarbonised energy system, rising from approximately 20 percent at present. It also stated that total global electricity demand could potentially triple by 2050, reaching 90,000 terawatt-hours from around 30,000 terawatt-hours today, and would largely be met through new generation from wind and solar sources.

A Global Opportunity

The report shows that many countries can operate power systems with 70% or more electricity from wind and solar, using proven technologies available like battery storage, other energy storage, long-distance transmission, and flexible energy use.

It highlights significant regional opportunities:

• "Sun belt" countries – including India, Mexico, and much of Africa – are best-positioned to cut power system costs by transitioning to low-cost, solar-led systems, which mainly require day-night balancing.

• In contrast, "wind belt" countries – such as the UK, Germany, and Canada – that rely on higher shares of wind face higher balancing costs, but can still achieve affordable, stable systems through smart policy and innovation.

• In many regions, long-distance transmission lines can be one of the most cost-effective solutions to balancing supply and demand, and should be maximised where feasible.

"Multiple technologies, including nuclear and geothermal, may play a role in zero-carbon power systems. But wind and solar will be the dominant source of power in most countries, providing 70% or more of electricity at costs equal to or below today's fossil-based systems. In particular, in the global sun belt, the collapsing cost of solar PV and batteries makes possible far cheaper and more rapid growth in green electricity supply than seemed feasible 10 years ago. But wind belt countries can also achieve cost-effective decarbonisation by leading in offshore wind, long-duration storage, and grid innovation," said Adair Turner, Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission.

Key Findings:

• Sun belt countries could see costs more than halve to $30-$40/MWh by 2050. Wind-dependent country costs (e.g., UK) are higher, but in the future could be comparable to current levels.

• The "last mile" of decarbonisation will be the most expensive, particularly in countries that need ultra-long duration balancing to meet seasonal variations in supply and demand. 

• Total global grid length will need to more than double by 2050, reaching around 150–200 million km. Annual grid investment could rise from $370 billion in 2024, peaking at $870 billion in the 2030s. However, ~35% of grid expansion costs (equivalent to $1.3 trillion in Europe) could be avoided between now and 2050 through the usage of innovative grid technologies.

• Delivering low-cost, high variable renewable energy power systems will require strategic vision and planning, including market reform to put all technologies on a level playing field, grid modernisation enabled by innovative technologies, supply chain development strategies, and customer engagement.

"Clean electricity is essential for climate action and is the most affordable way to power economic development. Countries can build resilient economies fit for the future by investing in renewables, grids, and flexibility now. Indeed, it is their obligation to do so, according to the recent ICJ advisory opinion," said Christiana Figueres, Founding Partner, Global Optimism.

"Wind, solar, hydropower, geothermal, storage, and modern grids are transforming electricity systems and opening new opportunities for growth, investment, and energy security. To keep this momentum, deployment must advance alongside grid expansion, market reform, and investment," said Bruce Douglas, CEO at Global Renewables Alliance.