Rystad Energy Projects Almost 300% Jump in Onshore Wind for SE Asia

Rystad Energy projects that onshore wind capacity in Southeast Asia will expand from 6.5 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to 26 GW by 2030, an addition of 19.5 GW. 

The onshore wind market in Southeast Asia has historically seen only modest growth. A mix of regulatory hurdles, weak grid infrastructure, high investment costs, and the region’s continued reliance on coal as a cheap and stable power source has long curtailed progress. Over the past decade, this left wind lagging behind other renewable technologies in deployment.

This outlook is now beginning to change. As per Rystad Energy, the surge is expected to be driven by supportive policies, including renewable auctions, project awards, and attractive feed-in tariffs (FITs), combined with the greater adoption of mainland Chinese turbines in the region.

Policy and Technology Driving Momentum

Analysts point to falling costs, better turbine performance at lower wind speeds, and stronger policy frameworks as reasons behind renewed optimism. Governments in Southeast Asia have rolled out new regulations to boost investor confidence and accelerate renewable adoption. 

Increasingly, onshore wind is becoming economically competitive, offering a reliable generation profile that also makes it well-suited to power-intensive sectors like data centres.

Vietnam Leads, New Players Emerge

While Vietnam remains the largest wind market despite fluctuations in policy, other economies are stepping up. 

Thailand and the Philippines are also becoming major markets with a growing pipeline of projects, while Laos has entered the segment with its first major facility. Commissioned in August, this project is now the largest wind development in Southeast Asia and was built primarily to export electricity to Vietnam, signalling cross-border energy integration as a new trend.

Lessons from Boom-and-Bust Cycles

The recent spurt in activity outpaces the 1.1 GW added between 2021 and 2024, but past experiences underscore potential risks. 

Earlier surges - 4 GW in Vietnam, 1.5 GW in Thailand, and 400 MW in the Philippines - were followed by prolonged stagnation due to policy uncertainty. Since then, no new wind projects have been commissioned in Vietnam after 2021, in Thailand since 2019, and in the Philippines since 2015.

The challenges highlight wind’s greater complexity compared to solar, which benefits from a simpler and more modular supply chain.

Investor Confidence at Risk

In Vietnam, ongoing payment disputes between developers and the state-owned utility EVN have further shaken investor confidence. Proposals to retroactively reduce FITs for already operational projects, coupled with stricter acceptance requirements, have created financial uncertainty. 

At the same time, transmission bottlenecks and grid curtailments remain persistent issues, particularly for wind and solar projects completed during the boom years of 2018–2021.

Building Long-Term Stability

Despite the hurdles, Southeast Asia’s onshore wind sector holds vast potential. Future success will depend on consistent policies, steady project pipelines, stronger grid networks, and the creation of local supply chains.

With coordinated government support and industry collaboration, onshore wind could play a central role in meeting the region’s renewable energy targets and driving the broader energy transition.