Paris Agreement Could Reduce 57 Hot Days Annually, Study Shows

A new study by Climate Central and World Weather Attribution shows that the 2015 Paris Agreement could help the world avoid 57 dangerously hot days annually if countries fully implement their emission-cutting pledges, limiting warming this century to 2.6°C. 

The research underscores both the progress made in combating extreme heat and the urgent need to accelerate action to mitigate worsening climate impacts.

Historic Emission Cuts and Their Impact on Heat

Before the Paris Agreement was signed, warming was projected to reach 4°C by 2100, which would result in an average of 114 hot days globally each year. However, if current climate commitments hold and warming is limited to 2.6°C, the world could see 57 fewer hot days annually. 

Specific countries stand to benefit significantly, including Kenya could see 82 fewer hot days, while Mexico, Brazil, India, the US, and China could avoid around 30 hot days annually. This reduction could help alleviate severe health risks, ecosystem stresses, and economic disruptions caused by extreme heat.

Recent Heatwaves and Increased Likelihood

The study analysed six recent heatwaves that scorched southern Europe, West Africa, the Amazon, Asia, Australia, and North and Central America. At 4°C warming, these heat events would be 5 to 75 times more likely and 3 to 6°C hotter than current conditions, leading to devastating droughts, wildfires, and thousands of deaths. 

Even at 2.6°C warming, such heatwaves would be 3 to 35 times more likely and 1.5 to 3°C hotter, showing the critical importance of limiting warming as much as possible.

“The impacts of recent heatwaves show that many countries are not well prepared to deal with 1.3°C of warming, let alone the 2.6°C of warming projected if – and it’s a big if – countries meet their current emissions reduction pledges,” said Kristina Dahl, Vice President for Science at Climate Central.

Since the Paris Agreement came into effect, global temperature has already risen by 0.3°C, causing an increase of 11 additional hot days worldwide each year. 

In vulnerable regions like the Amazon and South Asia, heatwaves have become between 2 to 10 times more frequent, dramatically increasing health and safety risks.

Urgency of Accelerated Climate Action

Experts emphasise that while the Paris Agreement helped reduce the frequency of extreme heat events, faster and fairer policies are needed to accelerate the transition. 

Friederike Otto, Professor in Climate Science at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, said, “The Paris Agreement is a powerful, legally binding framework that can help us avoid the most severe impacts of climate change. However, countries need to do more to shift away from oil, gas, and coal. We have all the knowledge and technology needed to transition away from fossil fuels, but stronger, fairer policies are needed to move faster.”

Highlighting that any increase in temperature — whether it is 1.4, 1.5, or 1.7°C — will mean the difference between safety and suffering for millions of people, he insisted that political leaders need to take the reason for the Paris Agreement much more seriously. 

Kristina Dahl of Climate Central states that the world is still heading for a dangerously hot future and that preparedness for rising heat must be improved globally. Roop Singh from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre points out the importance of heat action plans and early warning systems, which save lives.

Other experts warn that the Amazon rainforest and other critical ecosystems are increasingly vulnerable as even small temperature rises exacerbate droughts and heatwaves. Without urgent action, extreme heat events will become more frequent and severe worldwide.

Progress and Challenges in Adaptation

Since 2015, awareness campaigns and early warning systems have improved global resilience. Approximately half of all countries now have heat warning systems, and at least 47 have developed heat action plans.

Despite these advances, many countries in Africa, Latin America, and Asia still lack adequate adaptation measures. The study highlights the urgent need for more widespread implementation of early warning systems, heat-health action plans, urban greening projects, and strengthened health services to sufficiently protect vulnerable populations.