Only 15 EV Brands in China to Survive by 2030: AlixPartners

Only 15 out of the 129 electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid brands currently operating in China are expected to remain financially viable by 2030, according to a new report by global consulting firm AlixPartners.

This consolidation, driven by fierce competition, overcapacity, and price wars, will see these surviving brands capture approximately 75 percent of China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) market by the end of the decade. Each is projected to achieve average annual sales of 1.02 million units. The report, however, did not name the likely survivors.

Stephen Dyer, Asia Head of AlixPartners’ Automotive and Industrial Practice, noted that while market consolidation is inevitable, it may proceed more slowly in China than in other markets. Local governments are expected to continue supporting weaker players due to their significance to regional employment, supply chains, and local economies.

Ongoing Price Wars and Overcapacity Pressure Profit Margins

China, the world’s largest automotive market, is currently embroiled in a prolonged price war amid significant overcapacity. This is pushing many automakers toward financial strain. Apart from BYD and Li Auto, no other publicly listed Chinese EV manufacturer has achieved full-year profitability.

Despite regulators calling for an end to aggressive price competition, Dyer said the price war would persist, though in less visible ways – through incentives like insurance subsidies, cash rebates, and zero-interest financing rather than direct price cuts.

Chinese EV Makers Must Evolve to Survive

The AlixPartners Outlook identifies two key actions automakers in China, including EV makers, must take to navigate the challenges ahead.

Firstly, automakers must fully capitalise on the shift towards advanced mobility, including the rapid adoption of Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS). China is now setting the pace in in-car technologies, not just on cost competitiveness. The global ADAS market is forecast to reach USD 50 billion by 2030, with China’s market share growing to 45 percent.

NEV brands in China are already using ADAS advancements, alongside non-price incentives, to strengthen their market positions and enhance affordability.

Secondly, the use of AI-enabled technologies can significantly improve operations across automakers and suppliers, cutting traditional development times and verification costs by up to 20 percent. This will be crucial as companies seek to streamline operations and remain competitive in both domestic and global markets.

Mounting Challenges for EVs

Adding to the industry’s challenges are rising global trade barriers. New US tariffs on Chinese EVs and components are expected to impose additional costs of around USD 30 billion by 2026. This is prompting many US-based companies to consider shifting supply chains out of China to avoid future risks.

“As domestic growth slows and global pressures mount, Chinese EV manufacturers must focus on building strong brands, scaling efficiently, and investing in advanced technologies like autonomous driving,” said Dyer. “Those that can quickly adapt and balance both domestic competition and international expansion will emerge as the industry’s long-term winners.”