India’s Solar Manufacturing Hits Breakeven, Unlocks 143 GW Export Potential by 2030

India has recently seen a surge in solar module manufacturing capacity, driven by the sector’s growing maturity and government-led expansion. The industry now appears to be shifting toward a more competitive, technology-driven phase, creating significant export potential.

A new report by EUPD Research, “India’s Solar Surge: The Next Looming PV Price Shock?”, notes that the scale of this expansion is creating substantial export opportunities. It states that a capacity utilization rate (CUF) of 65% represents the breakeven point for most manufacturers.

EUPD Research predicts

• India is expected to install about 213 GWdc new solar capacity between 2025-2029, with annual additions averaging 42 GWdc. 
• Solar cell manufacturing is projected to rise from 26 GW in 2025 to 171 GW by the end of the decade. 
• It also creates a module export potential of about 143 GW by 2030.

Supply Constraints From the US Market

With the United States historically absorbing the majority of shipments but now constrained by tighter trade measures, manufacturers will need to deepen engagement with Europe, the Middle East, and Africa to sustain production levels and diversify market exposure.

The study further predicts India’s module export potential to reach about 143 GW by 2030. This shift reflects the need to pivot away from the US market, which is now limited by stricter trade measures.

“India’s solar manufacturing surge has delivered scale, and the focus should now be on global competitiveness. Identifying the most resilient markets and their stakeholders, and meeting emerging sustainability and quality requirements, will be essential for long-term success,” said Markus A. W. Hoehner, Founder and CEO of EUPD Group.

Advancement in Scale & Integration

India’s cost position has improved over the past year, with the spot price gap between Indian and Chinese TOPCon modules narrowing from 9 to 5.7 US¢/W between early 2024 and October 2025. This shift reflects advances in automation, scale, integration, and production efficiency.

However, minimum sustainable prices in India remain 14 to 17% higher than in China and Southeast Asia, underscoring the need for continued technological and operational progress. Several structural advantages are strengthening India’s prospects in markets where sustainability considerations play an increasingly important role, including Europe.

Impact of Freight Costs from India to Europe & US

Freight costs from India to Europe account for about 5% of module prices compared with 8.7% for shipments from China, and shipping emissions on this route are about 65% lower. These factors support compliance with evolving European industrial and carbon-related requirements.

The proposed EU-India Free Trade Agreement could add further momentum through potential mutual recognition of testing and certification, as well as opportunities for joint investment and technology cooperation.

“India’s expanding manufacturing base is increasingly aligned with regions seeking diversified and transparent supply chains, and maintaining competitiveness will be essential as global oversupply and pricing pressures persist,” said Rajan Kalsotra, Senior Consultant at EUPD Research.