India to Add ₹2.64 Trillion in Transmission Projects by FY31: Ind-Ra

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra)’s recent research has indicated a Stable rating outlook for transmission projects for FY27, supported by a favourable regulatory framework and an expectation of stable operational performance. The momentum in new project awards in the transmission sector is likely to continue, as ₹2,641 billion worth of transmission projects are expected to be added by FY31, according to the inter-state transmission system (ISTS) rolling plan.

For future projects, Ind-Ra expects annual awards of ₹600–800 billion during FY26 and FY27. Furthermore, as of 9MFY26, 68 projects awarded through tariff-based competitive bidding have been completed. Of these, 12 were completed on time.

Capital Expenditure Supports Transmission

Sharing its outlook for transmission projects, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a Stable rating outlook for transmission projects for FY27, supported by a favourable regulatory framework and an expectation of stable operational performance.

The momentum in new project awards in the transmission sector is expected to continue, with ₹2,641 billion worth of transmission projects likely to be added by FY31 under the ISTS rolling plan. Dhamodharan M, Senior Analyst, Infrastructure & Project Finance Group at Ind-Ra, expects capital expenditure in the transmission segment to support the pace of renewable capacity additions, particularly in regions with a high concentration of renewable energy projects, albeit with some delays.

Dhamodharan noted that, as of October 2025, approximately 76% of under-construction transmission projects, valued at about ₹2,538 billion, are located in Rajasthan and Gujarat. However, he also pointed out that transmission projects with costs exceeding ₹10 billion have experienced an average delay of around 11 months, with maximum delays exceeding two years. We have heard management at large developers like Adani Green talk about key transmission projects that are likely to be commissioned in these regions by March 2026 itself, which will certainly help ease the issue of curtailment as well.

Ind-Ra expects India’s energy requirement growth to moderate to about 2% in FY26 (FY25: 4.1%; FY24: 7.4%; FY23: 9.7%). The report noted that a prolonged monsoon and moderation in industrial activity have led to lower energy demand (1QFY26: down 1.6% year-on-year; 2QFY26: up 3.3% year-on-year; 3QFY26: down 0.2% year-on-year). During 9MFY26, all-India peak demand reached an all-time high of around 242.5 GW in June 2025 (May 2024: 250 GW; May 2023: 221 GW).

Building on this, India’s solar power generation surged by about 20% in 9MFY26, supported by a 28.5% increase in capacity compared with end-March 2025. Capacity addition momentum accelerated, with 30.2 GW added in 9MFY26 (FY25: 23.8 GW), taking total installed capacity to 135.8 GW.

Domestic Cell Mandate Pushes Up Solar Module Costs 

Ind-Ra expects full-year installations of 35–40 GW (FY25: 23.8 GW; FY24: 15 GW). Solar module prices are likely to rise in the near term, as the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) mandates the use of domestically manufactured cells for participation in government procurement programmes.

In 8MFY26, the all-India wind power generation plant load factor (PLF) improved by 9.5% year-on-year (FY25: down 7.4%; FY24: up 9.9%; FY23: up 3.1%). Generation improved significantly year-on-year in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, which together account for about 49% of installed capacity, while the remaining states recorded a decline in PLF.

Ind-Ra expects net capacity additions in the wind sector of 5–6 GW during FY26 (9MFY26: 4.47 GW; FY25: 4.1 GW; FY24: 3.3 GW; FY23: 2.3 GW), with total wind capacity reaching about 54.5 GW by end-December 2025.