iFOREST Report Sees Potential For More Ambitious Renewable Targets In Assam

iFOREST a research-based organization, in a recent report on enabling renewable energy in Assam recognized the steps taken by the Assam government to increase renewable energy (RE) penetration. It considered the states progress since the announcement of the Assam Renewable Energy Policy 2022 (AREP 2022) in November 2022.

iFOREST’s research indicates the need for accelerated RE capacity expansion. Assam’s electricity demand is projected to double by 2030, necessitating nearly 3,000 MW of RE capacity by 2026-27 and 5,000 MW by 2031-32 to meet renewable energy obligations (RPOs) and ensure energy security. The report believes this is more than possible, as central estimates of Assam’s renewable potential seem to be too conservative, with the state having potential to host much more in terms of ground mounted, thanks to higher wasteland availability than estimated earlier.  The full report can be seen here.

The Assam government has set the target to expand the state’s installed RE capacity to 1,200 MW by 2027. The report identified, tendering and project development activities, concerning large RE projects have increased. At present, the state has about 15 ground-mounted, floating solar, and Agri – PV projects with an aggregate 1,985 MW capacity that are under various stages of development. These 15 projects comprised ground-mounted projects – eight projects aggregating 1,625 MW of capacity, three Agri-PV projects (250 MW), and two floating solar projects (110 MW) are under development.

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Sharing the status of ongoing projects, it mentioned that the state has nearly 2,000 MW of solar capacity in the pipeline, however, structural challenges pose limitations on sector growth, and on the state’s potential to initiate large and distributed RE deployments which remained underutilized. iFOREST stressed on the need for accelerated RE capacity expansion. Assam’s electricity demand is projected to double by 2030, necessitating nearly 3,000 MW of RE capacity by 2026-27 and 5,000 MW by 2031-32 to meet renewable energy obligations (RPOs) and ensure energy security.

The iFOREST report highlighted some challenges such as, “Perceived limited potential, high material costs, high grid integration costs, and land identification/acquisition/lease persist, poses a significant barrier to growth. In the distributed RE segment, scaling up remains a challenge due to the lack of institutional strength, interdepartmental coordination, and a robust vendor ecosystem.”

The study by Central Electricity Authority (CEA) showed the renewable energy deployment, till March 2022 in Assam to be 2,037 MW, which included among other sources, 9% energy comes from other RE projects (as of February 2024). In addition to this the installed utility capacity in the state is currently at 529 MW of captive power generation capacity installed in Assam. The energy sources are spread across 69 industrial units, and installed captive capacity, in which 3% energy comes from RE projects.

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Current installed capacity in Assam Till February 2024

The report shared details on the renewable energy installed in the state and mentioned, “As of February 2024, only 192 MW of RE (non-hydro) capacity has been installed in Assam, of the 136,570 MW of RE capacity installed across the country. Among the north-eastern states, the installed capacity is the highest, accounting for nearly one-third of the regional installed capacity.”

Current Installed Non-Utility/ Captive Capacity Till March 2022

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Further, the source-wise data mentioned, “Nearly 55% of the state’s RE capacity is ground-mounted solar, 21% is rooftop solar, 18% is small hydro, 5% is off-grid, and 1% is in the form of non-bagasse cogeneration projects. In the past five years, the installed RE capacity has increased nearly four times, from 53 MW in 2018. This has been primarily on account of the growth in the solar ground-mounted and rooftop capacities, while small hydro capacity has remained nearly stagnant.”

Installed RE Capacity In Assam Till February 2024

The government of Assam lent additional support to promote several distributed renewable energy solutions (DRE). The report finds, “Over the last couple of years, state nodal agencies and PSUs commissioned two major solar plants. These projects were commissioned in the state in 2022, including a 90 MW plant by Azure Power and a 70 MW Amguri Solar Power Park by Jackson Power. Since then, several projects have been announced and awarded, likely to be commissioned by 2025-2027.”

Additionally, “SJVN Green Energy Limited (SGEL) initiated some projects which are that are in various stages of approval and development, construction. For instance, recently they initiated a 50 MW Dhekiajuli Solar Power Project of SJVN Green Energy Limited (SGEL). The project was awarded to SGEL in August 2023 at I3.92/kWh. Construction is expected to cost $35.17 million and be completed by March 2025. Some other installations include the October 2022, SJVN Green Energy project which was undertaken after an MoU was signed with the APDCL to develop 1,000 MW of floating solar projects in the state. Assam Gas Company (AGCL) has also invited bids to conduct a feasibility study for a proposed agri-voltaic solar power project at Sadiya in the Tinsukia district.”

NEW RPO FOR EXPANSION IN ENERGY DEMAND

Based on the current scenario presented by the government of Assam indicated an increase in electricity demand due to expanding electrification and economic growth. It anticipates doubled electrification in 2021-22, and Assam’s electricity consumption (utility). It elaborated, the current, electricity availability in the state is struggling to keep pace with the expanding demand, with the peak shortage in 2022-23 amounting to 2.84%.

Furthermore, “The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) projects that the state’s energy requirement and peak demand (utility) will double by 2031-32. Assam presently has one of the lowest per capita electricity consumption among states (about 350 kWh in 2021-22), at one-third of the national per capita consumption (1,255 kWh). The low levels of growth reflect stagnant historical growth and lower industrialization levels. However, as the state aims for fast economic growth in the coming decade, the electricity requirement is projected to grow at an unprecedented pace.”

It presented a new RPO projection based on data gathered from the government of Assam, Assam Electricity Regulatory Commission (AERC). Based on the presented data the report gives a new RPO trajectory and the projected electricity demand, the RE-based electricity requirement of Assam to expand significantly in coming years. For instance, the new RPO trajectory will lead to a need for 114 MW of wind and 203 MW of hydro capacity by 2026-27, which would increase to at least 706 MW and 270 MW respectively by 2031-32.

It anticipated, “The RE category, at 2,706 MW by 2026-27 and 4,199 MW by 2031-32, which is likely to be met largely by solar. Further, a new requirement of DRE RPO has also been introduced, which will increase the DRE procurement requirement to at least 357 MW by 2031-32.”