France Scales Back Solar and Wind Targets Amid Power Surplus

The French government has marginally reduced its targets for expanding solar and onshore wind capacity as the country faces a power surplus caused by slower-than-expected electrification and declining fossil fuel use.

The adjustments are part of France’s long-awaited energy roadmap, which sets production targets for 2030 and 2035 across energy sources including nuclear, hydropower, biofuels, geothermal, solar, and wind. The roadmap is expected to enable the government to resume subsidy auctions for renewable energy projects, though its longevity remains uncertain ahead of next year’s presidential election.

Concerns have grown over the political outlook, as the far-right National Rally, which opposes wind and solar power, could come to power in 2027.

“Let’s try to have a roadmap that takes us at least until the presidential election and avoids a toxic standstill,” Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said during the presentation of the energy plan at a hydroelectric dam in eastern France on Thursday. “Our industrial, climate and geopolitical interests match the interest of consumers.”

Power Surplus Pressures Nuclear Economics

France has seen a surge in renewable generation capacity alongside subdued electricity demand since the 2022 energy crisis. This has pushed power exports to record levels and driven wholesale electricity prices sharply lower.

While lower prices have benefited consumers, they have weighed on the finances of Electricite de France SA (EDF), the state-run nuclear operator. The pressure complicates EDF’s ability to finance plans for six new nuclear reactors intended to replace parts of the country’s aging fleet.

Under the revised roadmap unveiled Thursday, France’s photovoltaic capacity is now expected to reach 48 gigawatts by 2030, 6 gigawatts below the target outlined in March last year. The 2030 target for onshore wind capacity was cut by 2 gigawatts, while the 2035 offshore wind target was reduced by 3 gigawatts.

Subsidy Costs to Peak Before Falling

The government acknowledged that past expansions of solar and wind capacity had inflated subsidy payments to renewable energy producers. However, it said the annual subsidy bill is expected to peak at around €9 billion ($10.7 billion) in the coming years before falling by half by 2040, assuming a median power price scenario.

“We’re broadly satisfied with all these decisions,” said Jules Nyssen, president of Syndicat des Energies Renouvelables, France’s largest renewable energy industry body. He added, however, that regulatory barriers to installing taller wind turbines should be removed.

The combined additions of renewable capacity and several new pumped-hydro storage projects are expected to increase France’s total power output by around 20% by 2035.

The government also plans to unveil measures later this year to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles, heat pumps, and electrified industrial processes, alongside initiatives aimed at attracting more data centres to the country.