Europe Curtails Over 10 TWh of Power in 2024, 1,000 GW+ Renewables Stuck in Grid Queues

The European renewable energy market—comprising solar, onshore wind, and offshore wind capacity—has grown by over 150% in the past decade. According to global power markets analytics provider Aurora Energy Research’s 2026 European Renewables Market Overview Report (RESMOR), Europe will need about €1.5 trillion in cumulative investment by 2050 to support the expansion of renewable energy, as capacity is expected to more than triple between 2026 and 2050.

1,000 GW+ of RE Awaits Grid Connection Across Europe

Development risks remain a key constraint, with permitting timelines stretching up to a decade in some markets, despite EU rules requiring decisions within two years. The report estimated that more than 1,000 GW of renewable energy capacity is currently awaiting grid connection approval across Europe, with Italy accounting for roughly 370 GW of the pipeline.

Curtailment is also set to increase as grid constraints intensify. Technical curtailment exceeded 10 TWh across Europe in 2024 and is expected to rise to almost 22 TWh across Great Britain, Spain, and Italy alone by 2030.

Sameer Hussain, Research Senior Analyst at Aurora Energy Research, concludes: “Record levels of negative pricing and increasing curtailment are putting significant pressure on the profitability of renewable projects across Europe. To protect returns in this more unpredictable landscape, developers need to adapt—by investing in technological innovation, diversifying their portfolios, and integrating battery energy storage solutions.”

Europe Requires Nearly €600 Bn in Investment by 2030 Alone

Nearly €600 billion in investment will be required by 2030 alone, the report highlights, with spending set to accelerate thereafter as countries seek to meet climate targets and replace ageing thermal generation. In the near term, subsidies and power purchase agreements (PPAs) are expected to remain the dominant routes to market, though their attractiveness continues to vary widely by country and technology.

PPAs continue to provide an alternative route to market, with Spain, Great Britain, and Germany accounting for the bulk of announced European PPA-backed capacity to date. However, solar PPA prices have fallen to record lows—below €40 per megawatt-hour in Germany and Spain—reflecting cannibalisation effects.

Jörn Richstein, Research Lead, Pan European Power Markets, Policies & Technologies, at Aurora Energy Research, says: “Power Purchase Agreements are playing an increasingly central role in Europe’s renewables growth, especially in countries without viable subsidy schemes, or where fuelled by rising corporate demand, as industries step up their decarbonisation efforts. Innovative and flexible PPA contracts will be key to meeting the evolving needs of both corporate offtakers and energy producers.”

Two-sided contracts for difference (CfDs) will remain the primary support mechanism across most European markets, with 162 GW of renewable capacity already announced for auction procurement by 2030. However, Aurora warns that the success of subsidy auctions hinges on auction design, competition levels, and policy certainty.

The report further highlights that offshore wind auctions have faced growing challenges over the past year, with recent rounds in Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark failing to attract any bids, while Lithuania’s latest auction secured just one bidder. Supply chain pressures, political uncertainty, and auction design flaws have weighed on investor appetite.

Negative Pricing Pressures to Ease Post-2035

The report also flags the rapid rise of negative power prices as a growing risk. Negative price hours surged in 2025, exceeding 2024 levels in most European markets. Spain, the Netherlands, and Germany recorded over 500 hours, while Belgium, France, and Poland followed closely with over 450 hours.

At the same time, many countries are scaling back subsidy protections against negative prices, increasing risks for generators. Aurora expects negative pricing pressures to ease after 2035 as electricity demand rises, system flexibility improves, and price-insensitive subsidies are phased out.

Rebecca McManus, Lead Expert, European Renewables, at Aurora Energy Research, says: “Europe is on the brink of a renewables surge, with solar and wind capacity set to more than triple by 2050. Yet, this wave of investment will only deliver its promise if policymakers and industry leaders tackle grid and development bottlenecks. The European Grids Package is a positive step, aiming to accelerate permitting and unlock stalled projects.”