EU Solar Hits 65.5 GW, Risks Missing 2030 Target by 100 GW

The European Union (EU) solar market reached a new all-time high of 65.5 GW, but the annual growth has drastically decelerated. The market surged in the utility-scale solar market segment in 2024 at the expense of residential rooftop solar losses, found a Solar Power Europe report.

The EU Market Outlook for Solar Power 2024-2028 warns against a potential slowdown in the solar market. The report mentioned, “Looking forward, we anticipate low single-digit annual growth rates of 3-7% between 2025 and 2028. This would be good enough for the EU to meet its 2030 solar target of 750 GW. However, for the first time, Europe could actually miss this target by 100 GW.”

The study attributed the slowdown to the residential segment. The report said, “After the residential rooftop segment experienced strong absolute growth in 2022 and 2023, driven by the energy crisis, the growth dynamic began to slow down. Conversely, the commercial and industrial rooftop segment experienced modest growth, with its market share rising slightly to 39% in 2024 from 36% the previous year.”

Prospects For 2025

The report shares the prospect for growth in 2025, it stated, “The market is projected to add 70 GW of capacity, representing a 7% growth rate. This increase will primarily come from utility-scale projects initiated in 2023-2024 that benefited from record-low module prices. Growth rates will further drop in 2026, when we expect only 3% market growth to 72.3 GW, as we anticipate a downturn in project activity, with developers reacting to mounting grid constraints and market uncertainties. “

The report forecasts, “The EU market is forecasted to improve by 6% to 76.5 GW in 2027, and by 7% to 81.5 GW in 2028, according to our Medium Scenario. For 2027, that means a 15.2 GW or 16% lower forecast than published in the GMO in June 2024 (see Box 3). While we see positive impacts from EU legislation driving the solar market, like the EPBD’s requirements for the installation of solar on buildings, we anticipate a decrease in political commitment at a time when many member states will have met their National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) solar targets.”

EU Electricity Rate

The report pointed towards a slowdown in the EU electrification. It found, “The electrification rate in the EU has been stagnating for the past five years. Heavy industry and transport need to electrify faster to allow the integration of more renewable electricity. At the heart of the slowdown is a systemic bottleneck – a sluggish electrification rate.”

Contrasting the slowdown with the rapid renewable energy expansion he report explained, “Despite the rapid expansion of renewable capacity, Europe’s electrification rate has been stuck at around 22–23% for the past five years. Key sectors such as industry, heating, and transportation are not transitioning to electricity quickly enough to keep pace with the growing volumes of renewable electricity being generated. Accelerating this shift is essential for the effective integration of solar electricity and achieving EU decarbonization goals.”

EU Solar Manufacturing

Highlighting the key challenges faced by the industry the report found, “Solar manufacturing in Europe faced a challenging year in 2024. After another solar boom year in 2023, with demand growing by over 50%, market dynamics changed in 2024. While demand hardly grew in Europe, PV product prices continued their steep downward trajectory. The global surge in new manufacturing capacities coming online in 2023 and 2024 has been causing unseen supply-demand imbalances, forcing module and other component prices to plummet to unsustainable levels. This has put immense pressure on EU and global PV manufacturers, with announcements of closures and bankruptcies, particularly in the module segment during 2024.”