Electric Bikes Twice as Cheap as Petrol, Finds CEEW

India’s vehicle ownership is set to more than double from 226 million in 2023 to nearly 500 million in 2050, according to a new, independent series of studies by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW).  Two-wheelers will continue to hold the lion’s share, accounting for nearly 70% of all vehicles–over 350 million–according to a business-as-usual projection built on expected GDP and population growth till 2050. Private car ownership is projected to almost triple, reaching 90 million by mid-century.

Northern & Western States Dominant in India’s Vehicle Stock Growth 

The CEEW studies are a district-level projection of India’s vehicle stock, total cost of ownership, and transport fuel demand. Most of India’s vehicle stock growth will be concentrated in northern and western states. Uttar Pradesh alone will house over 90 million vehicles. Bihar, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat are also poised for significant growth, while southern states will see a plateauing effect due to slowing population levels. At the district level, urban and peri-urban centers such as Delhi, Bengaluru, Thane, Pune, and Ahmedabad will dominate, accounting for 10 percent of India’s total projected vehicle stock in 2050.

Further, the studies find that electric vehicles (EVs) are already cost-competitive across key segments-especially two- and three-wheelers, taxis, and private cars in states with supportive EV policies. Electric two-wheelers already offer the lowest total cost of ownership (TCO), at INR 1.48/km versus INR 2.46/km for petrol models. EVs also lead in the three-wheeler segment-three-wheeler EVs cost INR 1.28/km versus INR 3.21/km for petrol. Further, EVs deliver major savings for commercial taxis, where daily operating costs matter most. For private cars, competitiveness varies by state by differences in EV subsidies, charging tariffs, and upfront prices.

Medium & Heavy Goods Vehicles: EVs Are More Expensive Than Diesel

In contrast, for medium and heavy goods vehicles, EVs currently remain more expensive than diesel, CNG, or LNG in 2024, according to the CEEW studies. LNG is expected to remain the cheapest option for buses and trucks until 2040. Therefore, for heavy goods vehicles, large-scale adoption of EVs and green fuels like green hydrogen will require targeted R&D, supporting infrastructure, and cost reductions.

Hemant Mallya, Fellow, CEEW, said, “Avoiding capacity expansion of crude oil refineries is as important as increasing the penetration of EVs in the transport sector. In this regard, natural gas could play a bridge role with strategic planning to utilise existing gas infrastructure. A clear-eyed understanding of how vehicles grow, what fuels them, and what it costs to own them is essential for managing this transition and building sustainable mobility systems.”

In a business-as-usual scenario bottlenecks to clean alternatives persist, especially for trucks and buses—diesel demand would peak only by 2047, the CEEW projections find. Petrol demand could peak earlier, around 2032. To bend the emissions curve and accelerate the transition, India must prioritise the rapid adoption of electric and LNG vehicles in the bus and truck segments—where nearly 70 percent of transport emissions in 2050 would otherwise originate. Policy and infrastructure development, therefore, need to focus on LNG refueling stations and high-capacity EV charging stations for trucks and buses along high-traffic corridors, along with domestic R&D investments for battery manufacturing to reduce costs.

Himani Jain, Senior Programme Lead, CEEW, said, “The CEEW studies show that under a business-as-usual scenario, India faces unsustainable growth in vehicle stock, fuel use, and emissions. We need to rethink how we design and move through our cities. Congestion doesn’t just impact citizens; it hampers business productivity and deters investment. We need walkable, efficient, low-carbon urban transport systems. Our modelling opens up a new research agenda-from local low-carbon transport planning and alternate fuels to pricing transport right.”

Key Recommendations

The CEEW studies recommend India must strengthen disaggregated vehicle stock data-particularly through the VAHAN portal-and bridge district-level information gaps. Improving EV affordability is key, with battery financing models like EMIs or rentals via public banks and NBFCs.

With fuel tax revenues set to decline beyond the 2040s, states must explore alternatives such as distance-based taxation. Policymakers should also prioritise understanding vehicle ownership trends in fast-growing rural and peri-urban areas. Mapping parking access-especially private and residential facilities-can help identify households more likely to adopt EVs, since they can install slow chargers and charge affordably overnight. Complementing this, slow- charging points in public or workplace parking areas can support EV users without private access, while managing grid loads more efficiently.