Chinese Solar Module Exports Cross 200 GW in 2023

Record high solar installations in 2023 globally have been a bonanza for Chinese module makers and associated firms, with exports expected to end at 200 GW in 2023. Based on data till November, China-based consultancy firm InfoLink Consulting’s placed Asia Pacific in the lead destination for China-made module exports in November, with India leading the demand from Asia-Pacific. For all of 2022, 155 GW of module exports were made, ensuring 2023 would be a record year for China module exports to the rest of the world. The exports however have been accompanied by a record 42% drop in module prices through the year as per another research agency, Woodmac, limiting bottomline gains for the Chinese majors somewhat.   

With 8.1 GW out of 17.7 GW in November, demand in the Asia Pacific region was led by India importing nearly 3.9 GW in November 2023, says Infolink. India also imported 1.2 GW of cells from China during the reporting month, becoming the biggest importer for the month. Readers will be aware that the ALMM restrictions in India were lifted till March 2024, leading to the rush of imports by large players. This is also one reason why industry watchers have expressed hopes of anything between 6 to 8 GW of capacity additions in the final quarter of FY24, a trend that could continue well into Fy25 first half, even if the broad exemptions are not extended beyond March. Most people we have spoken to are expecting some sort of exemption or grandfathering to continue for projects bid out till a cut off date possibly, or even for Green Hydrogen focused projects possibly.    

Pakistan and Japan were the other major Asia Pacific markets to import significant Chinese modules. In all, this region imported 47.4 GW of Chinese modules during 11M/2023, a 61% YoY increase. Pakistan’s case mught surprise many people, as officially, the country continues to struggle with government led auctions, with the latest auction for 600 MW meeting zero responses. However, massive power price increases coupled with  unpredictable suppy has created a thriving private market for off grid solar in the country.  

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Europe, which had been the target of a sustained buying binge slowed down considerably in the second half of the year, with record inventory levels in the continent and the traditional winter slowdown. It imported just 4.9 GW in November. This represents a decrease of 20% YoY and 22% sequentially. Overall European import are expected to nudge 100 GW, accounting for almost 50% of total Chinese exports during the year. 

The Americas bought 27.5 GW of total Chinese modules during 11M/2023. 

The  Middle East added 1.2 GW in November with a 90% YoY increase but a 22% MoM decrease. Saudi Arabia alone procured 6.6 GW of the 13 GW in the year. 

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With Chinese firms having ramped up capacities even further during the year and expected to expand well into Fy25,  most analysts expect prices to remain steady at current rates, with disruptions like the Red sea shipping lanes impacting freight costs somewhat.

For India, Fy 24 might yet turn out to be ‘peak year’ for China module imports, as significant domestic module manufacturing capacity comes online. That will ensure that the country remains a key importer of Solar cells of course, which attract a lower import duty(25%)  also as compared to modules at 40%.

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