China Nears Historic Power Shift as Solar Overtakes Coal in 2026

China’s installed solar power capacity is projected to surpass coal-fired capacity for the first time this year, marking a major milestone in the country’s energy transition and reinforcing its status as the world’s largest renewable energy market.

According to the 2025–2026 National Power Supply and Demand Analysis and Forecast Report released by the China Electricity Council on Monday, the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power is expected to account for around half of China’s total power generation capacity by the end of 2026.

Rapid capacity additions under ‘dual carbon’ goals

Driven by Beijing’s “dual carbon” targets, the council expects China to add more than 400 GW of new power generation capacity in 2026 alone. Of this, over 300 GW is expected to come from new energy sources, primarily wind and solar.

By the end of 2026, China’s total installed power capacity is forecast to reach about 4.3 terawatts (TW). Non-fossil energy sources are projected to account for roughly 2.7 TW, or about 63 percent of the country’s total power fleet. In contrast, the share of coal-fired power is expected to decline further, falling to around 31 percent of total installed capacity.

Wind and Solar Widen Lead Over Thermal Power

China’s combined installed capacity of wind and solar power crossed 1,800 GW for the first time last year, continuing to widen the gap with thermal power, which is dominated by fossil fuels.

Data released by the National Energy Administration show that by the end of 2025, China’s total installed wind and solar capacity had reached 1,840 GW. Solar power accounted for 1,200 GW, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35 percent, while wind power capacity rose 23 percent to 640 GW, making them the fastest-growing power sources in the country.

As of December 31, wind and solar together represented just over 47 percent of China’s total installed power capacity.

Wind and solar power first overtook thermal power in installed capacity in the first quarter of last year. By March 31, 2025, wind and solar capacity stood at 1,482 GW, compared with 1,451 GW of thermal power. The gap has since widened to about 300 GW, with thermal power capacity at 1,539 GW by the end of 2025.

Record Annual Additions

China’s wind and solar capacity additions have accelerated sharply in recent years. The country added 120 GW in 2022, 290 GW in 2023, 360 GW in 2024, and a record 434 GW last year, including around 119 GW of wind power and 315 GW of solar power.

China has remained the world’s largest market for wind and solar power for many years and has built a comprehensive industrial supply chain spanning photovoltaic modules, wind turbines, and inverters, all of which rank first globally in output and exports.

Average generation costs for wind power projects worldwide have fallen by about 60 percent, while photovoltaic power generation costs have declined by roughly 80 percent, according to industry data.