Bangladesh Rooftop Solar Target Faces Timeline, Capacity Hurdles – IEEFA

Bangladesh’s plan to install 3,000 megawatts (MW) of rooftop solar capacity by December 2025 faces significant challenges due to limited rooftop potential, inadequate maintenance budgets and weak developer capacity, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) said in a note on Monday.

The country had installed just 245MW of rooftop solar between June 2008 and June 2025, meaning capacity additions would need to rise more than 12-fold in less than six months to meet the government’s new target, IEEFA said.

Sanctioned Load Issue 

“Government offices, hospitals, educational and religious institutions are unlikely to offer adequate sanctioned load to install 3,000MW rooftop solar,” said Shafiqul Alam, IEEFA’s lead energy analyst for Bangladesh. “Fund allocation, tendering, evaluation of bids, work orders and project implementation will likely require an extension of the December 2025 deadline,” he added.

Bangladesh plans to use the CAPEX model, supported by public funds, for installations in government offices, while hospitals and schools will adopt the OPEX model, which requires no upfront costs.

IEEFA said the CAPEX model could deliver faster rollout and higher savings but warned of risks from poor coordination, rushed developer selection and lack of long-term maintenance. The OPEX model, while ensuring better quality, may face financing hurdles and attract limited investor interest for small, scattered rural projects affected by load-shedding.

Maintenance Costs 

The think tank also highlighted risks such as soiling, which could reduce annual generation, and called for funds to be set aside from monthly savings in CAPEX projects to cover maintenance costs.

Bangladesh has 15-20 high-quality engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) companies, which may lack the capacity to install 3,000MW in less than six months, it added.

IEEFA pointed to examples from neighbouring countries, noting Pakistan’s rooftop solar growth driven by energy shortages and high tariffs, Sri Lanka’s expansion supported by multilateral financing, and India’s 18GW rooftop solar capacity achieved with consistent policy support.

“Capacity development of key stakeholders and an independent monitoring mechanism will be important for the programme’s success,” Alam said.