Africa’s Solar Revolution Hits Critical Turning Point in 2025: Africa Solar Outlook 2026

The African solar energy landscape has entered a transformative era, according to the newly released Africa Solar Outlook 2026 report by the Africa Solar Industry Association (AFSIA). The report highlights 2025 as a landmark year, characterised by record-breaking installations, the emergence of local manufacturing, and a massive shift in how the continent’s solar potential is measured.

A Top-Down Reality Check

For years, the true scale of solar in Africa was significantly underestimated. By cross-referencing bottom-up project tracking with Chinese export data, which accounts for roughly 90% of the global market, the report reveals a much larger footprint than previously recorded.

While AFSIA's database identified 23.4 GWp of operational projects at the end of 2025, Chinese customs data indicates that over 58.1 GWp of solar components have been shipped to African nations since 2017. 

This discrepancy highlights a massive, hidden market of smaller commercial, industrial, and residential installations that had previously gone uncaptured.

Regional Leaders and Rising Stars

The 2026 Outlook introduces a more nuanced way of assessing national performance, moving beyond absolute megawatts to look at installed capacity per capita (Wp/capita).

Namibia has claimed the top spot in Africa for Wp/capita, overtaking previous leader Seychelles. The report notes that South Africa remains a dominant force, ranking third in per capita metrics but leading in absolute volume with over 18 GWp of identified capacity.

Further, Tunisia has become a new entrant in the Top 5 for the first time, fueled by the commissioning of the 120 MWp Kairouan Solar PV plant. The report also notes that Chad, Liberia, and Sudan were identified as the year's "rising stars," making double-digit jumps in continental rankings.

The End of Intermittency: The Storage Surge

The most significant technological shift noted in the report is the robust rise of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). New price points and technological advancements are effectively deleting the intermittent nature of solar power, making PV+BESS projects cost-competitive with traditional baseload power.

The report cites projects that were recently considered impossible, such as a baseload solar-plus-storage project at a copper mine in the DRC and a 100 MWp/290 MWh project in Mauritius delivering power at just $0.07/kWh.

From Importer to Manufacturer

2025 also marked a crucial moment for Africa's Solar Manufacturing segment. After years of total reliance on Asian imports, several nations are now moving to anchor the value chain locally.

Nigeria has emerged as the focal point of this industrial push, establishing a public-private partnership for a 1 GW solar panel manufacturing facility. Additional plans in Nigeria include a 1.2 GW module assembly plant and an 800 MW PV factory, signalling a coordinated effort to create a regional manufacturing hub for West Africa. Zimbabwe has also announced plans for domestic production facilities.

Navigating the Capital Gap

Despite the growth, financing remains a complex hurdle for Commercial and Industrial (C&I) projects. 

Experts emphasise that for solar to reach its full potential, developers need single-digit interest rate debt and leverage ratios of 70% or higher to keep energy prices below 10 cents per kWh. 

Innovative inventory financing solutions pioneered in 2025 are beginning to reduce the lag between contract signatures and project starts, the report said.