Africa’s Solar Capacity to Reach 31 GW This Year Despite Slowdown: WoodMac

Africa, despite attracting just over 2% of global energy investment and experiencing a year-over-year decline in the pace of solar installations in 2024, is now looking to alleviate energy poverty through an inward and expansion-driven approach.

Despite this slowdown, Wood Mackenzie predicts that solar capacity across Africa will increase from 11.4 GW in 2021 to 31 GW by the end of this year. The continent aims to source this energy from both conventional and renewable power generation to achieve energy sufficiency, according to Wood Mackenzie’s latest Horizons report.

Africa's total solar and wind capacity is forecast to grow by almost 600% over the next decade, according to the “Asset rich, energy poor: Maximising Africa’s natural resources to transform the continent” report by Wood Mackenzie.

“Africa is incredibly rich in natural resources; however, it faces severe energy poverty, with 600 million people lacking electricity access and four-fifths relying on traditional cooking fuels,” said Mansur Mohammed, Africa Upstream & Carbon Management New Business Development at Wood Mackenzie. “Africa's minerals power global clean energy transitions while the continent itself remains energy-poor.”

Africa's Export Potential

As a host to the global production of critical minerals essential for the energy transition, Africa accounts for over two-thirds of global cobalt mine output and around 20% of copper supply. It also produces significant volumes of platinum, manganese, lithium, and rare earth elements. These minerals are crucial components in batteries, renewable energy technologies, and global electrification efforts.

Moreover, even though Africa accounts for only 3.5% of global emissions, Wood Mackenzie argues that the continent needs to draw on all of its resources to industrialise, while the rest of the world needs to decarbonise faster. The research found that a balanced approach—maximising both renewable potential and responsible hydrocarbon development—offers the most viable path to energy prosperity for future generations.

“On the other hand, Africa faces massive underutilisation of its hydrocarbon wealth—only one-third of discovered oil and gas volumes have been commercialised, representing one of the world's lowest development rates despite vast resources,” said Mohammed.

“Major barriers include poor governance, weak regulation, and limited local gas markets, all of which contribute to a lack of access to competitive finance for local companies.” Wood Mackenzie forecasts that Africa's oil and gas sector will deliver an average of US$109 billion annually in government revenues through 2030, with the potential for even higher returns if more resources are developed.

Africa Expands Oil and Gas Production

Africa is a significant player in global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets, accounting for almost 10% of worldwide supply and demonstrating substantial growth potential ahead. The continent leads in floating LNG technology, operating six out of ten projects globally.

African oil and gas producers have set ambitious production targets. Nigeria aims to double oil production to three million barrels per day and increase gas output to 12 billion cubic feet per day by 2030, while Angola left OPEC in 2023 specifically to facilitate greater liquids production.

These ambitious goals are gaining traction, with fiscal incentives introduced by regulators in both countries attracting nearly US$20 billion in project final investment decisions since 2024.

Africa's Solar Potential: Low Consumption, High Export

Despite its export success, Africa consumes merely 4% of global gas supply and has the world's lowest per capita consumption—less than one-quarter of the global average. African governments are increasingly recognising the opportunity to develop domestic markets alongside export projects. Cross-border pipeline proposals demonstrate growing regional cooperation, with gas-to-power transitions offering the most economic route to monetise resources.

Most mineral production is exported to China for processing, creating a missed opportunity for domestic value addition and energy development. Given the scale of risk-tolerant Chinese investment in resource-rich African countries, this presents Africa with an opportunity to strike deals with China for investment in clean energy projects at home in return for access to its critical mineral resources.

"By 2050, Africa will be home to around 2.5 billion people—more than one billion more than its current population. The continent possesses the resources to achieve energy sufficiency. The challenge lies not in availability but in mobilising capital, improving governance, and implementing innovative solutions to unlock the continent's immense energy potential for its people," said Mohammed.