Solar In 2026- Expert Predictions

As we approach 2026, the global solar market is entering its most complex phase yet. After years of exponential, record-breaking growth, the industry's "premium" forecasters - BloombergNEF (BNEF), IEA, and S&P Global - are presenting diverging paths. 

One common agreement, however, is that for the first time in over two decades, there is a prediction of a year-on-year (YoY) decline in annual installations.

This comparative study breaks down the specific data and market drivers behind the 2026 projections from these leading organisations.

The 2026 Data Breakdown (Annual Solar PV Additions in GW)

The following table compares the latest annual installation projections (in GWdc) for the upcoming two years compared to the 2024 baseline.

Analyst Deep-Dive: The Divergence

1. BloombergNEF (BNEF): The "First Dip" Warning

BNEF recently announced a forecast for the first global annual installation decline since the year 2000. While they project a massive 655 GW in 2025, they expect 2026 to cut down to 649 GW. 

The forecast highlights that the country’s market-based pricing (replacing guaranteed returns) will slow the breakneck pace of Chinese developers, who currently account for over 50 percent of the world's solar buildout.

2. IEA: Steady, but Revised Growth

The International Energy Agency numbers also predict an overall decline of the net solar addition capacity for 2026, as per its Renewable Energy Progress Tracker.

Growth in utility-scale and distributed solar PV more than doubles in 2025-2030 period, compared to 2019-2024. This represents nearly 80% of worldwide renewable electricity capacity expansion.

However, the tracker shows a sudden drop in 2026 additions, mostly contributed by solar. From about 585 GW addition estimated for 2025, the IEA predicts that 2026 will add a lesser number of 540 GW. Of this, the utility-scale setup will contribute roughly 307 GW and about 233 GW will come from distributed systems.

The Paris-based intergovernmental organisation predicts that global annual renewable capacity additions will rise from 683 GW in 2024 to almost 890 GW in 2030. Globally, renewable power capacity is projected to increase almost 4 600 GW between 2025 and 2030 – double the deployment of the previous five years (2019-2024).

3. S&P Global

S&P Global forecasts shows the solar capacity growth in AC. Taking an Inverter Loading Ratio (ILR) of 1.3, the estimated global additions as per the organisation stood at about 600 GW for 2024. Now, from a high of about 694 GW in 2025, the expects the numbers to fall in 2026 to 660 GW.

The firm predicts China to play a major role in this downturn and expects that the country’s annual additions will fall from approximately 300 GW in 2025 to about 200 GW in 2026, a decline so steep that no other region will be able to compensate. S&P Global insists that a major policy shift in mid-2025 - from guaranteed pricing to competitive bidding - triggered a dramatic slowdown after an initial rush of installations.

Key Market Drivers for 2026

For 2026, several key market drivers will decide the course of solar growth globally. 

S&P predicts China to play a major role in this downturn and expects that the country’s annual additions will fall from approximately 300 GW in 2025 to about 200 GW in 2026, a decline so steep that no other region will be able to compensate. S&P Global insists that a major policy shift in mid-2025 - from guaranteed pricing to competitive bidding - triggered a dramatic slowdown after an initial rush of installations.

BNEF also seconds on this, identifying the downturn as ‘a result of China’s most recent five-year economic plan, which suggests a slowdown from the country’s ‘breakneck’ pace following a projected 372 GW of solar deployment in 2025.’

Outside of China, however, global solar growth continues with installations in India and Africa accelerating. This is despite the potential slowing of expansion in Europe and the United States in 2026.

The variation in data between BNEF, IEA, and S&P Global is more than just a difference in numbers. It is a signal of the profound uncertainty currently gripping the global energy transition.