From Tasmania’s 100% Green Power to Victoria’s Delays: Mapping Australia’s Energy Divide

Australia is making strides in the renewable transition, with the country’s renewables recently hitting a record 76.4 percent share of electricity demand on the National Electricity Market. From it's 40% rooftop solar penetration to the numerous 'big batteries', both existing and planned  dotting the continent, it has provided a roadmap for many others to follow. As per data and analytics firm GlobalData, renewables are expected to account for 73.3 percent of the country’s total power generation by 2035. Furthermore, Australia is poised to break through 10 GW of new wind and solar energisation in 2025 – for the first time.

Different States of Energy Transition

The pace of energy transition, however, is not same across all regions of Australia with few leading the pack on certain fronts, and few pulling it back altogether. 

However, the renewable growth is facing major issues due to complex regulatory and planning processes for renewable energy development applications (DAs). For example, the planning approval process for large-scale renewable energy projects in New South Wales (NSW) is significantly slower and more expensive than in other Australian states - two-three times longer (four-seven years) and is 25 times more expensive for developers compared to Queensland (QLD), which  boasts the swiftest planning approval system.

Each region has its own fuel mix advantages. NSW and QLD continue to rely heavily on black coal, though the share of renewables and storage is steadily rising. In Victoria, brown coal still accounts for around 58 percent of generation, while renewables and BESS are far behind.

Comparatively, the two frontrunners are South Australia (SA) and Tasmania (TAS). In SA, majority of electricity generated in the last three months came from renewables camp, and Tasmania is being called the ‘Battery of the Nation’ as 100 percent of its electricity over the last three months came from non-fossil sources. 

Victoria’s Renewable Woes

The bottlenecks to overall growth are needed to be tackled if the country wants to achieve the ambitious target of 82 percent renewable share in its total electricity supply from by 2030. Focusing on laggards, like Victoria, may have huge impact in the times to come.

Victoria is on track to meet its 40 percent renewable energy target by the end of 2025, but faces significant challenges in achieving future goals amid project delays and reliability concerns, according to a new independent audit report released on December 3, 2025.

The Victorian Auditor-General's Office (VAGO) examined progress toward legislated targets under the Renewable Energy Jobs and Investment Act 2017, highlighting the need for improved risk management as coal-fired power stations, such as Yallourn, close in mid-2028. 

The report urges the Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (DEECA) and SEC Victoria to develop contingency plans for potential electricity shortfalls.​

Progress on 2025 and 2030 Targets

Victoria achieved a 39.1 percent renewable energy share in 2024, and modelling shows it will exceed the 40 percent target in 2025 under various scenarios, including moderate demand growth and rooftop solar uptake. 

However, reaching 65 percent by 2030 hinges on the full delivery of Australia's Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) allocation - 5 GW of renewables and 1.7 GW of storage - plus fast-tracked transmission upgrades like the Western Victoria and Eastern Victoria reinforcement programs. 

Storage targets appear secure, with up to 5.8 GW of battery capacity potentially online by 2030, more than double the 2.6 GW goal.​

Delays in Key Infrastructure Projects

Offshore wind development lags severely, missing the 2 GW target by 2032 due to unresolved port issues at Hastings and delayed auctions now pushed to 2026. The optimistic scenarios point to completion in 2033 at best. 

Transmission projects VNI West and Western Renewables Link, critical for accessing interstate firm energy post-Yallourn, are delayed until 2030, two years after the coal plant's closure. 

Battery storage advances positively: SEC's 700 MW across Melbourne Renewable Energy Hub and Horsham projects will be online by 2027, alongside EnergyAustralia's 350 MW Wooreen battery.​

Recommendations for Stronger Transition

VAGO issued four accepted recommendations. Firstly, DEECA must collaborate on transmission for CIS projects, monitor daily supply scenarios, apply Treasury risk guidance, and address firm energy gaps with the SEC. 

The Victorian Transmission Plan proposes 7 renewable energy zones and USD 1.2 billion in upgrades by 2030, but assumes optimistic timelines amid capacity constraints. Without enhanced investment and uncertainty modelling, Victoria risks price volatility, supply disruptions, and reliability breaches beyond 2030.